“If the gas runs out this winter, the climate will have to wait a while” , says energy expert Lucia van Geuns from The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. In this lecture she will discuss the geopolitical challenges on the international energy market facing us the upcoming winter and next ten years.
Climate change was already forcing nations, companies, and citizens worldwide to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, but since February this year, the war in Ukraine has also been forcing the European community to accelerate its independence from Russian gas and oil. At the same time, the war is putting energy security and affordability in Europe at stake. While the EU is imposing sanctions on Russia, Russia is increasingly turning off the gas tap. The attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines show that infrastructure is at risk, and the oil market, which has not yet recovered since the corona crisis, is suffering major shocks with a new production quota from November - set by the oil cartel OPEC+, partly at Russia's insistence - and an imminent boycott of Russian oil from the EU in December. This has major implications for economies, household’s purchasing power, and the global energy transition.
What effects on the energy market can we expect as a result of geopolitical tensions in European society, which is now as fragmented as it was before 1990? What choices do we have when it comes to investing in renewable energy versus sticking to fossil sources in the upcoming decade? Lucia van Geuns discusses the bumpy road the international community has to cross while searching for new energy standards. “Climate goals are very important, but there shouldn't be any taboos in an emergency situation like we are in now.”
Drs. Lucia van Geuns works as Strategic Advisor Energy at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). She is an experienced energy professional who held research positions at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) after a career with Royal Dutch Shell (1980- 2002).
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